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What shows will be
hits come the fall
Study finds that viewers have already decided
By Diego Vasquez
Jul 5, 2006
There’s still two months before the fall schedules premiere, and loads of promos yet to air, but it seems many people have already decided what they will and won’t be watching. According to a study conducted last month by Phi Power, a Santa Monica, Calif.-based research firm, many returning shows moving into new timeslots will trump or tie returning ones. NBC’s “My Name is Earl” will edge CBS’s “Survivor” on Thursday nights at 8 p.m., while ABC’s “Grey’s Anatomy” will tie “CSI” among women 18-49. And CBS’s “Without a Trace,” while trailing among younger viewers, will do very well among older viewers opposite ABC’s usually dominant Sunday schedule and could eventually pull even among men 18-49. Meanwhile, the networks’ new dramas seem to hold more promise than their comedies, though no new show scored particularly well. In the study, conducted May 19-23, respondents were asked to choose which show they would watch in a particular timeslot, choosing among shows on the five English-language broadcast networks. Geoff Huntington, Phi Power’s executive vice president of research and program development and the former NBC vice president of program research, talks with Media Life about schedule moves, fall’s most promising shows, and which night will be most competitive.
What did you find most surprising about this survey?
I probably should not admit this, having tested network programs for over 25 years, but I continue to be surprised by how quickly and consistently people decide what shows they are going to watch.
The returning series displayed a range of appeal, with some appearing stronger than others, and that generally tracked with their performance in the Nielsen ratings. Some of the biggest attractions included “CSI” and “CSI: Miami,” “Law & Order: SVU,” “Without a Trace” (in its new Sunday berth), “American Idol” (on Tuesdays), and “ER” (against two new series).
We had an unpleasant surprise when NBC announced its revised schedule. Fox and The CW, the last networks to present, announced their schedules May 18th, our survey went to field May 19th and completed May 23rd, and then NBC’s changes were released May 25th. That reduced some of the study’s utility.
Which night will be most competitive?
Even before NBC moved “Deal or No Deal,” Thursday looks very competitive. “My Name is Earl” starts off the night edging ahead of “Survivor” due to a solid win among men. At 9 p.m., “CSI” is well ahead of “Grey’s Anatomy” with men 18-49, teens, and viewers 50+, but “Grey’s Anatomy” is essentially tied with “CSI” with women 18-49. “Deal or No Deal” is a wild card at 9 p.m. “ER” looks likely to return to dominance at 10 p.m., but both of its new rivals, “Shark” and “Six Degrees,” attracted a respectable number of viewers.
Sunday is also very competitive depending upon the targeted demographic. The study indicated that CBS and ABC will be neck and neck with women 18-49. They will generally be watching “America’s Funniest Home Videos,” “Extreme Makeover: Home Edition” on ABC, and then “Without a Trace” on CBS.
NBC and Fox are apt to be tooth and nail for men 18-49. They are divided between NBC’s football games and the Fox comedies, “The Simpsons” and “King of the Hill.”
ABC looks to have a slight lead over Fox with teens, who are interested in watching “America’s Funniest Home Videos” (instead of Fox football in the fall), “Extreme Makeover: Home Edition,” “Desperate Housewives,” “The Simpsons,” “American Dad,” and “Family Guy.” They also are interested in CBS’s “Without a Trace.”
CBS should have a comfortable lead with viewers over 50, who are particularly attracted to “60 Minutes” and “Without a Trace.” The CW will probably edge a win over CBS with African Americans due to “Everybody Hates Chris,” “All of Us,” “Girlfriends” and “The Game.”
The other days Mondays, Tuesdays (in the fall), Wednesdays, and Saturdays also have close races. It is going to be an interesting year.
Which scheduling move has the most potential based on your study?
One that should have considerable impact is the move of NFL football from ABC on Mondays to NBC on Sundays.
Although it is not apt to win the night, and men do not seem very interested in watching NBC’s in-studio pre-game, especially if opposite an overrun game on Fox, the primetime game is clearly attractive to many men, and the span from 8-to-11 p.m. or later represents a substantial programming period.
Fox splits its schedule in two, for fall and spring. Did your research indicate that viewers are confused by the significant schedule changes, or have they come to expect it these days?
We did not specifically ask about confusion or awareness, but speculate that viewers have grown accustomed to the arrival of new shows after the new year, as well as in the summer. We did clearly see a spike in interest when “24” and “American Idol” return to the Fox lineup in the spring.
Are people planning to follow CBS's "Without a Trace" to Sundays?
People may not yet know the show will be on Sundays, but the study shows that when they do, “Without a Trace” could be a hit on that night. It has the potential to attract a broad audience, including women 18-49, teens, and viewers 50-plus, as well as a considerable number of men 18-49 who are more interested in it than football.
Which new show seems to have the most potential? How about the least?
New shows scored lower than returning shows, which is to be expected as returning shows have already proven themselves, and the new programs are still unfamiliar. Promotion had barely started when the study was conducted.
Still, the press photography and descriptions did convey the essence of the new shows, and some fared better than others.
A few of the leading newcomers include “Justice” (when it moves to Wednesday at 8 p.m.), “Shark” and “Six Degrees” (both opposite “ER”), “Vanished,” and “Heroes.”
Execution, competition and promotion will obviously influence which of the new shows survive, and the study suggests some may have an up-hill battle ahead of them.
The networks obviously spend a lot of money making people aware of their scheduling changes. Does it work, or are people confused come fall when "Grey's" isn't on Sunday night?
It is likely some people will not get the word that “Grey’s Anatomy” is moving, and probably will be frustrated to not be able to watch it after “Desperate Housewives,” but ABC will undoubtedly do substantial promotion announcing its move.
The study does suggest that fans will follow a hit program when it is moved to an appropriate slot (for example, the same time-period on a different night) and they know about it -- our study told them.
If there is interest in the industry we could repeat this study this year to cover NBC’s changes and are looking to repeat it on a yearly basis. We are currently in discussions to provide network support tracking reactions to shows as episodes hit the air.
Diego Vasquez is a staff writer for Media Life. |
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